Is Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Churchill Downs. Read for free now.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

What Is Churchill Downs's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Churchill Downs had US$4.91b of debt, at December 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has US$175.5m in cash leading to net debt of about US$4.73b.

How Strong Is Churchill Downs' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Churchill Downs had liabilities of US$729.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.44b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$175.5m and US$113.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$5.88b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$7.53b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

View our latest analysis for Churchill Downs

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 2.4 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 hit our confidence in Churchill Downs like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. However, one redeeming factor is that Churchill Downs grew its EBIT at 18% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Churchill Downs can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Churchill Downs reported free cash flow worth 14% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

Our View

To be frank both Churchill Downs's interest cover and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Churchill Downs's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Churchill Downs that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.