Goldman Sachs Hits The Brakes: Auto Tariffs & Slumping Demand May Shake Up Ford, Tesla, Rivian, Lear & Visteon

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney is hitting the brakes on U.S. auto sales and global production forecasts, citing tariff troubles and weaker consumer demand.

Although the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9 were delayed, still sector-specific tariffs (including auto tariffs) are projected to “remain in place,” the analyst cautions.

According to Delaney, the proposed tariffs would raise the cost of importing and manufacturing vehicles in the U.S. by at least a low- to mid-single-digit thousand-dollar level on average.

Also Read: Volkswagen Sees EV Boom In Europe While Audi Battles Recall Woes Amid Tariff Turbulence

The analyst highlights that the auto industry will have difficulty fully passing on these costs, particularly as consumer demand weakens.

Delaney assumes that new vehicle net prices in the U.S. will rise by about $2,000 to $4,000 over the next 6–12 months due to tariff impacts.

The analyst now projects U.S. auto sales to hit 15.40 million units in 2025 and 15.25 million in 2026, down from previous estimates of 16.25 million and 16.35 million, respectively.

Here are the key analyst downgrades of major auto players:

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F): Delaney downgraded Ford from Buy to Neutral, with a price forecast of $9.

While the analyst still sees long-term opportunities in Ford’s shift toward software, services and continued cost-cutting, Delaney downgraded the stock.

The change reflects a tougher cyclical environment marked by global competition, weaker demand, rising tariff-related costs, and a higher valuation relative to traditional auto peers.

General Motors Company (NYSE:GM): Delaney reiterated the Buy rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $63.

He lowered estimates to reflect a tougher cyclical outlook and rising competition, especially in China and globally.

However, Delaney noted that General Motors trades at a much lower P/E multiple than Ford and is expected to face slightly less impact from tariffs on its earnings.

Ford shares are trading lower by 5% to $9.025 at last check Thursday.

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA): Regarding Tesla, Delaney acknowledged headwinds like weaker auto demand, softer consumer sentiment, tariff-related costs (including in its Energy division) and risks tied to U.S. EV policies.

He highlighted Tesla’s long-term growth potential in AI and reiterated the company’s Neutral rating, with a price forecast of $260.

TSLA shares are trading lower by 9.95% to $11.24 at last check Thursday.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN): Delaney noted that the company faces risks from reduced U.S. EV policy support and a weaker economic backdrop. The analyst maintained a Neutral rating on Rivian and a price forecast of $12.

RIVN shares are trading lower by 4.57% to $11.24 at last check Thursday.

Apart from these, the analyst writes that tier 1 suppliers like Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) and Visteon Corporation (NASDAQ:VC) will struggle to fully offset lower industry volumes. These stocks are downgraded from Buy to Neutral.

Delaney writes that Visteon and Lear have the highest tariff exposure as a percentage of EBIT, limiting their ability to offset tariffs, which is a downside risk.

VC shares are trading lower by 10.5% to $66.01 at last check on Thursday, while LEA shares are trading lower by 8.89% to $75.50.

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